Nigeria’s 2015 Elections – A Forecast

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An interesting and quite methodical forecast for the upcoming elections. I rather agree with a fair amount of the forecasting just that I see voter turnout in the Northeast to be slightly under 50%. I also see the voting pattern being slightly different in Adamawa, Edo, Imo and Rivers with PDP getting slightly more votes than forecasted in those states. I however think there will be an increased percentage of votes for APC in the North and South West in General with the voting pattern of the middle belt group left a bit in the air. If we have a free and fair election then we might have an election that can swing either way. When forecasting we might have to factor in rigging in whatever form it might exist. I think a method of rigging this election would be preventing election materials from getting to areas that aren’t a party’s stronghold. I believe both major parties have the machinery to rig, one through the power of government and the other through the power of money and thugs. Who do I predict will win? I see a slight victory for President Jonathan but then again the Nigerian people might pleasantly surprise me and opt for something different. Not that I think Buhari is better, I think removing an incumbent will send a shiver down the spine of the political class and tell them that if you do not perform you will be booted out of office. All in All, I hope above all for a peaceful election. Either Buhari or Jonathan, whoever wins or loses should accept the result and battle if they must through the courts.

I am also personally interested in the National Assembly elections happening tomorrow. I think we will see the emergence of other parties aside the PDP and APC as decent forces within the National Assembly. Now only if some of these parties when they win the National Assembly seats and gain political power come together and form an interesting third option in the run to 2019.

Find the Post below

kunledurojaiye

Nigeria’s 2015 presidential elections are due to hold in a couple of days, barring any last minute changes to the rescheduled date, March 28. The poll was initially scheduled for February 14 but deferred due to ‘security concerns’, as stated by the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC). The postponement was not a welcome development to the All Progressives Congress (APC), the country’s strongest opposition political party, considering the massive momentum and traction gathered ahead of the planned February 14 date. The ruling Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) on the other hand appeared to be in sync with the decision to reschedule. Popular public opinion holds that if the elections had been held as initially planned, the APC would have come out victorious, perhaps inching towards a landslide. This impression was further alluded to by the likes of Dr. Frederick Fasehun, leader of the Oodua People’s Congress (OPC), in a…

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