Nigerian Elections 2011: A Best/Worst Risk Analysis of a Goodluck Jonathan Presidency

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I have been reading a book by Ben Carson called Take the Risk. In the book, Dr Carson gives a simple yet somewhat effective means of assessing risk and making decisions. He calls is a Best/Worst Analysis formula. This formula involves four questions:

What is the Best thing that can happen if I do this?
What is the Worst thing that can happen if I do this?
What is the Best thing that can happen if I don’t do this?
What is the Worst thing that can happen if I don’t do this?

So I m going to try and apply this to the prospect of a Goodluck Jonathan Presidency and what it could mean for Nigeria

What is the best thing that can happen if Goodluck wins the presidency?

Well from all indications on the ground, a Goodluck presidency will continue the process of re-awakening the country’s railroad system, will make inland water transportation across the River Niger a reality. He will also privatize the power sector, which could possibly bring an improvement in the power sector. He will also award contracts for gas power and possibly see the country make good use of the gas resources it has instead of gas flaring. He will tackle unemployment by improving agriculture (how? He doesn’t say, shebi you wan turn us into farmers? Tschew). He will open federal universities in all states of the nation so more schools to absorb the millions of JAMBites. The people of the Niger-Delta who produce the oil and have felt marginalized feel as though they are part of Nigeria because their “brother” is in power. He proceeds with oil exploration in the Chad basin and the people of the North gain from having oil. He also increases the minimum wage and we have no fuel scarcities.

What is the worst thing that can happen if Goodluck wins the Presidency?

If Goodluck wins, the PDP wins. Having ruled the country for 12 years and being the cesspool of corruption we all know and love, we should expect another four years of bribery scandals, uncompleted contracts and projects and all out looting of the treasury through the NNPC and other means as per usual. He continues to be clueless as to how to ensure the security of people in this country, He fails to catch the perpetrators of several bomb blast across the nation, Boko Haram continue to rampage the north and MEND doesn’t quit attacking Nigerians. We continue to waste money on solving the power problem and don’t see results. He stops all the projects he was doing prior to the elections and Nigerians realize it was all a campaign strategy. There is a lack of transparency in the sale of national assets with companies tied to his cronies winning bids. Also when 2015 comes around, Goodluck refuses to step down and runs for presidency again, this time rigging massively despite cries from the South East and the North that he promised them the presidency. The country is thrown into conflict

Whats the Best thing that can happen if Goodluck doesn’t win the Presidency?

He will be judged to have conducted the freest and fairest election this country has ever seen. In an acknowledgment of this, he becomes a highly valued statesman with great influence over affairs of this country. The democratic system of the country develops as he shows that politics is not a do or die affair and hands over power peacefully to another party. There is an end to corruption as perpetrated by the PDP. A government of national unity is formed and all stakeholders are given a voice in the new government. We finally start to solve the power problem due to the absence of corruption. The Niger Delta crisis reduces as in during the Yar’adua government because the new president is keen to solve the problems of the region since he is not from the region and hence doesn’t want to anger the people after the loss of Goodluck.

Whats the Worst thing that can happen if Goodluck doesn’t win the presidency?

Angry that they have lost, the PDP and its members embark on a campaign of violence. The loss by PDP tears the country apart as they were the only truly national party. The new President is highly sectional and doesn’t apply the principles of federal character in appointing people to his cabinet thereby further igniting ethno-religious resentment. The president is clueless and takes too much time learning the ropes of power hence development is slow. The new president is discovered to be full of rhetoric and poor on performance delivery. The new government is as corrupt as the PDP one before it and hence the military intervenes and the country is once again thrown into military rule. Alternatively Goodluck refuses to step down and we have an Ivory-coast/Gbagbo situation on our hands. Since Nigeria produces oil and is not a former French colony, The US intervenes and the country suffers from a case of neo-colonialism with an American stooge placed in power.

Of course, most of my analysis is simplistic and might be criticized for being too fictional but that is just what it is fictional, I m looking at possible What ifs. What would be your answers to these questions and remember you can use this for any candidate.


2 thoughts on “Nigerian Elections 2011: A Best/Worst Risk Analysis of a Goodluck Jonathan Presidency

    makii said:
    April 15, 2011 at 8:37 am

    thanks bros. your write up is very interesting and brings in a different perspective. thank you very much, those 4 questions sure will help in any kind of decision making. however, it drags me back to where i was a few days back having gravitated towards BB. i am back in the middle now cos of the dynamic of GEJ not winning and that causing an ethnic issue in 9ja or business as usual with a different piper calling the short. no one can guarantee that the new guys, whoever they are, will not continue the way of pdp. you know that is what we were hoping will not happen when we had a new dispensation and a break away from military rule in 1999. newswatch said at that time democracy has not changed much in nigeria, it has just lengthened the food chain.
    one thing i cant reconcile is the focus is getting gej/pdp out by all means and not what the opposition can do for us. if you look at it gej has not been as attacking as the other guys have been on his candidacy. infact he has asked nigerians to vote for whoever they wish to lead them which is a very noble thing. i really dont like mud slinging pple/politics/politians.
    thanks for sharing.

      Sir Fariku responded:
      April 15, 2011 at 9:20 am

      Yes indeed, No one can guarantee that a new regime wont be the same as the old regime. However, I believe that since no one knows the future we should weigh the pros and cons of each candidate based on the present and what he has done in the past. We should base our judgement on that because if we vote for someone because we are afraid of ethnic issue, we wont satisfy our conscience.
      On the other side, some of us just want to get GEJ/PDP out because we are tired of how things are. THe question is, are the other parties any better? In terms of the negative campaign where candidates have been attacking each other, I dont think any candidate is innocent. Even Goodluck supporters have been publishing adverts in the newspaper accusing Buhari of one thing of the other. Maybe the first step towards a better democracy is for our politicians to stop this do or die attitude and campaign on their merits.

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