An interesting and quite methodical forecast for the upcoming elections. I rather agree with a fair amount of the forecasting just that I see voter turnout in the Northeast to be slightly under 50%. I also see the voting pattern being slightly different in Adamawa, Edo, Imo and Rivers with PDP getting slightly more votes than forecasted in those states. I however think there will be an increased percentage of votes for APC in the North and South West in General with the voting pattern of the middle belt group left a bit in the air. If we have a free and fair election then we might have an election that can swing either way. When forecasting we might have to factor in rigging in whatever form it might exist. I think a method of rigging this election would be preventing election materials from getting to areas that aren’t a party’s stronghold. I believe both major parties have the machinery to rig, one through the power of government and the other through the power of money and thugs. Who do I predict will win? I see a slight victory for President Jonathan but then again the Nigerian people might pleasantly surprise me and opt for something different. Not that I think Buhari is better, I think removing an incumbent will send a shiver down the spine of the political class and tell them that if you do not perform you will be booted out of office. All in All, I hope above all for a peaceful election. Either Buhari or Jonathan, whoever wins or loses should accept the result and battle if they must through the courts.
I am also personally interested in the National Assembly elections happening tomorrow. I think we will see the emergence of other parties aside the PDP and APC as decent forces within the National Assembly. Now only if some of these parties when they win the National Assembly seats and gain political power come together and form an interesting third option in the run to 2019.
Find the Post below
Originally posted on kunledurojaiye:
Nigeria’s 2015 presidential elections are due to hold in a couple of days, barring any last minute changes to the rescheduled date, March 28. The poll was initially scheduled for February 14 but deferred due to ‘security concerns’, as stated by the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC). The postponement was not a welcome development to the All Progressives Congress (APC), the country’s strongest opposition political party, considering the massive momentum and traction gathered ahead of the planned February 14 date. The ruling Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) on the other hand appeared to be in sync with the decision to reschedule. Popular public opinion holds that if the elections had been held as initially planned, the APC would have come out victorious, perhaps inching towards a landslide. This impression was further alluded to by the likes of Dr. Frederick Fasehun, leader of the Oodua People’s Congress (OPC), in a…
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There is a lack of sustainable solutions in Nigeria. It seems we always like to tackle problems from a myopic view and by we I mean our political class, policy makers and leaders. Politicians come out and criticize one another and seem only adept at trying to solve problems from the surface. We are a country in dire need of think tanks and policy makers who would listen and reason with the recommendations of such think tanks to offer lasting solutions to the many problems that beset our nation. We are a nation of brilliant, intelligent, hard working and creative men and women so it behooves me why we keep giving temporary and short term solutions to long term and recurring problems.
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I wanted to write something in honor of Black History/Heritage Month which is celebrated February in the US. I m not in the US anymore, havent visited in some years but going to college there gave me an appreciation of black history and a more pan-black/african mindset. The other day I thought to myself, wouldnt it be interesting to name one of the kids I havent had yet Malcolm Xavier F so in essence he would be Malcolm X F and then give my other kid Martin/Martina. Anyway I was reading Obasanjo’s book and he made a point that struck me as true: Nigeria should have been the beacon of hope for Africa and heck the entire black race. Heck we should have been what Israel is to the Jewish race (clears throat before the Jewish mafia put out a hit on me, No antisemitism implied at at all), a sort of chosen people to show the rest of the black race and heck the world how it should be done. Read the rest of this entry »
1. No, Boko Haram and the insurgency is not a conspiracy by the North or even Northern leaders to make Jonathan look bad. I hear grown intelligent men and women down here below the Niger spew this rubbish and it makes me boil. What the hell is wrong with people in this country? I recently saw on the internet that 85 percent of people in the South South and South East believe Boko Haram is a Northern conspiracy against Jonathan, they also believe there were no Chibok girls (see 2 below) So a region decides to destroy itself to make a leader look bad? Get out of here! People have died and it is an insult to their memory to question the legitimacy of their deaths by turning it into a conspiracy theory. Read the rest of this entry »
January 15th is Armed Forces day in Nigeria and is a day that is supposed to provide an avenue for our citizens to remember those that have fought for this country and in many cases died in the line of duty. It should be a day when we put all our bullshit partisanship, ethnic and religious differences and pay tribute to the Nigerian soldier. Read the rest of this entry »
My Fellow Nigerians,
Not exactly 24 hours after the first post but I had to pause and watch the kickoff of both campaigns by the presidential candidates. For the first time in history GEJ sounded like he had some balls. Although he rambled on and on and was mostly on the defensive with almost every statement being prefixed with “they say”. However I do commend the passion he showed, a passion I never thought he had even though it was a bit of passion without substance. He did defend some of the accusations against him and dropped some new bombs at us (MEND hired to assassinate him, really bro? After you exonerated them 4 years ago?). Even if the opposition does not win the presidential elections, I believe our democracy has become richer because of the strong opposition we have. We are now seeing the ruling party sit up so to say because of their fear of the opposition which isnt an achievement in itself because indeed all governments should fear their people and we should be their first priority. Anyway, today let us enter the valley of the shadow of APC. Read the rest of this entry »